Global Correlation between GDP Per Capita and the Level of Sociopolitical Destabilization between 1960 and 2014: A Preliminary Quantitative Analysis


Authors: Bilyuga, S.; Shishkina, Alisa R.; Zinkina, Julia; Korotayev, Andrey
Almanac: Globalistics and globalization studiesGlobal Transformations and Global Future.

Within international relationships the specific imperial relations can be distin-guished via the principle of the mutually guided competition or rivalry among the diverse actor-states in the framework of a paramount global cooperation. If we take the universal global cooperation as a starting point (‘the first line’), it becomes then comprehensible, why this conflict can be conceived in the ‘second line’ also as a war of a new type. This basic situation (global cooperation and actually comprehensive rivalry and multiple competition of all against all in the second line) is inextricably linked, in our age with the reality of globalization. Simultaneously, the pure existence of these rivalries in the second line already means a fundamental change in the experience and interpretation of war and peace, for this competition personifies a permanent debate, which can much more easily go over to a symbolic or limited war problematic, as it seemed still possible in the past. The imperial conflicts of the second line (behind the global cooperation that constitutes the first line) adopt in any of their constitutions always clear ideological-philosophical forms. These ideologies and these philosophies of life adopt a generally ‘fundamentalist’ character, what can also be explained by this competition. This movement is also to explain with the rivalry of the individual global empires, in which leading ideologies anyway are often really very close to fundamentalism. This process carries in itself two dangers. Firstly the correspondence-relation of an ‘empire’ with a civilization/philosophy of life/religion represents a striking simplification, which must be in itself identified directly as the highest danger. Another consequence of this danger of the link of the rivalry of the empires with the rivalry of the ideologies consists in the easily understandable fact, that on this basis the mechanisms of the positive feedback must work (see, e.g., Hardt and Negri 2000). While we have described the globalization as dialectic of the modernity, we must categorize the advance of the fundamentalism (as well vertically as also horizontally) in this doubled rivalry as dialectic of the fundamentalism. While in the ‘West’ the anti-communism is the opposing fundamentalism number one, in the fundamen-talist ‘East’ (i.e. in the concrete empires, we count there), the anti-liberalism is the concept of enemy number one. The role distribution has the common train, that neither in the ‘West’ nor in the ‘East’ (in the here concerned great actors) the fundamentalism is the concept of enemy N°1, this contributes to another acceleration of the dynamics, if not of the dialectic of the fundamentalism.

Keywords: globalization, empire, civilization, peace, fundamentalism, philosophy, cooperation, war, competition.