Jihadism on the Long-Wave Clock

Authors: Berry, Brian J. L.; Dean, Denis J.; Elliott, Euel
Almanac: Kondratieff waves:The Spectrum of Opinions

The thesis of this paper is that as Islam was freed from Ottoman control after World War I, as Muslim states achieved their independence after World War II, and as massive Muslim migration to the West occurred, long-wave crises replaced colonial expansion as the trigger for jihad. The surges of new jihadist organizations emerged in two clusters, the first in the crisis years during and after the 1980–1981 long-wave peak and the second during the 2007–2011 long-wave trough. Such long-wave crises now are perceived by jihadists to be the onset of the Tribulation, the period when hardships and disaster afflict the world, signaling the imminent second coming of the Mahdi (Messiah) who will cleanse the world. The surges of jihadism thus now have to be understood to be newly-acquired manifestations of the global long-wave dynamic.

Keywords: Jihadism, Islam, terrorism, long-waves.