Revising a Long-term Perspective on Kondratieff Phenomena


Author: Thompson, William R.
Almanac: Kondratieff waves:Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts

For many analysts, Kondratieff waves (K-waves) are a curiosity or worse – an exercise in numerology or a sure bet way to pick stocks. For others, K-waves represent a way to capture the long-term rhythm of coming and going techno-logical regimes. New technology is not introduced at a constant rate. It comes and goes in spurts. These spurts shape the nature and timing of economic growth and other related processes. But I would take it even further and argue that K-waves are fundamental to an understanding of world politics. They have become, and increasingly so, part of its very bedrock. To ignore their im-pact is akin to acting as if tsunamis are occasional maritime nuisances or serious earthquakes only passing tremors.