Social and Economic Background of Blending

Author: Kornienko, Olga
Almanac: Globalistics and globalization studiesGlobal Transformations and Global Future.

Our research suggests that the relation between GDP per capita and sociopolitical destabilization is better described by an inversed U-shaped curve, rather than by a straightforward negative correlation, as is frequently believed. The highest risks are relevant for the countries with medium values of GDP per capita, not the highest or lowest values. Thus, until a certain value of GDP per capita is reached, the economic growth tends to lead to an increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabilization. It is only with higher values of GDP per capita that the economic growth starts to reduce the risks of destabilization. Thus, the higher values of GDP per capita are characterized by a negative correlation with sociopolitical destabilization risks, while its lower values demonstrate a positive correlation with this indicator.

Keywords: GDP per capita, sociopolitical destabilization, autocracy, democracy, intermediate political regimes, democratization, political development, economic development, anti-government demonstrations, education, middle-income trap.