The Possibilities of the Kondratieff Long Wave Theory in Forecasting of a New Technological Revolution (Commemorative medal)

Author: Grinin, Anton L.
Almanac: Kondratieff waves:The Spectrum of Opinions

Dear colleagues! I am deeply honoured to speak on the occasion of the award of N. D. Kondratieff Medal. First of all, I would like to express appreciation to the President and Director, as well as the International Kondratieff Foundation for this prestigious award.

The name of our conference is ‘Nikolai D. Kondratieff's Scientific Heritage and the Modernity’. Therefore, I would like to devote my speech to the role of Kondratieff's scientific heritage and, first of all, to the long wave theory in forecasting of the development of new technologies.

There are many different forecasts about future technologies. For example, Francis Fukuyama predicts the imminent bio-technological revolution and discusses its possible consequences (Fukuyama 2004). Along with technology optimists such as Raymond Kurzweil, there are also technology pessimists. But very few scholars build their forecasts on a reliable scientific theory. Alvin Toffler, for instance, was the exception, but most of his forecasts were made long ago.