Introduction. The Cyclical Dynamics as Associated with Economic Development


Authors: Grinin, Leonid; Devezas, Tessaleno C.; Korotayev, Andrey
Almanac: Kondratieff waves:Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts

The examinations of modern economic activities mostly plunge an observer into pessimism since the disturbing and negative facts and forecasts prevail over the positive ones. The currencies devalue, profit rates fall, and the debt load increases. Besides, the global trade is hampered and the threat of economic crisis is in the air. The researchers of the theory of long and medium-term cycles are certainly worried about the economic situation. However, they understand that so far the cyclicity, no matter how hard one tried to overcome it in the 20th century (and even succeeded in some respects), remains an inevitable attribute of economic development. And Juglar's aphorism that crisis is a consequence of the preceded prosperity is still true. And if we are in the downward phase of the cycle, then it is not surprising why economy is characterized by depressive features. Most of the economic actors have to fight against these difficulties and wait until the wheel of the cycle turns us to growth again.