Kondratieff Waves, Technological Modes, and the Theory of Production Revolutions

Author: Grinin, Leonid
Almanac: History & Mathematics:Investigating Past and Future

In the present article Kondratieff waves theory is considered in comparison with the theory of production revolutions which analyzes the regularities of the major technological breakthroughs in history. Both theories analyze the processes of cyclic nature related to the innovative technological development of the World-System. The mutual comparison of both theories allows the author to make important clarifications in understanding of the long-wave dynamics as a whole, as well as to give relevant explanations of the peculiarities of the unfolding of each of the five waves and their phases, to make forecasts about the sixth wave and the development of technologies of the sixth technological mode. The special attention is paid to the analysis of aspects and limitations
of the theory of technological modes, as it is used by many researchers to explain the causes of the long-wave dynamics.

Keywords: production revolution, Agrarian Revolution, Industrial Revolution, Cybernetic Revolution, production principle, Kondratieff waves, long waves, phases of long waves, technological innovations, technological mode, World-System, service sector, complex service sector.